My next few updates are going to be my predictions for what will happen at the World Cup. I intend to go through every group, pick what will happen game by game, and explain why I think certain teams will advance and why some won't. After the group stages, I will do one for each round, as I slowly reveal who I think will win the tournament. I begin with Group A, which features the hosts South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay and France.
World Cup Group A is not as simple as people are making it out to be. Many experts and fans are putting Uruguay and France through simply on the roster the two teams have along with them being big name countries who have won the tournament. They also have South Africa not advancing and Mexico not having enough fire power to get through. I however, do not see this group as straightforward as people is making it out to be.
Firstly, it is absolutely foolish to write off the Mexicans. Many within Mexico feel this may be the best team to go to the World Cup in a long time and that is saying a lot considering the Mexicans have made it to the round of 16 the last four tournaments. Although they are considered perennial underachievers with disappointing exits in 1994 to Bulgaria on penalty kicks and the USA in 2002, one safe bet would be the Mexicans scraping their way through the group stages. Exciting players like Giovanni dos Santos, Javier Hernandez and Carlos Vela are expected to provide the offensive power, while experienced defenders like Barcelona’s Rafael Marquez are going to hold down the defense. Oh and don’t count out their fat, overweight, 37 year old captain Cuauhtemoc Blanco, who is still a crafty player despite how humorous he looks as he runs around the field.
As hosts of the tournament, it would also be foolish to not have the South Africans break through the group stage. The host of the tournament has never failed to get out of the group stage and while the Bafana Bafana are the lowest rated host team ever, they still have history on their side. The one major thing South Africa has going for them is that they will have much of the crowds at their games cheering for them. One could also expect these stadiums to be the loudest ever at a World Cup final, not because South Africans are known for being loud, but because they will possess the extremely annoying vuvuzelas, hornlike instruments that are blared in unison during local games. They are a staple part of South African soccer, and while foreign teams have made efforts to have them banned from stadiums, they will be present. In a recent friendly which South Africa won over Colombia, the Colombian head coach said after the game that the stadium was the loudest he’d ever stepped in, and teams will have trouble communicating on the pitch because of the horns. The South Africans shouldn’t though because they will be used to the horns as they have heard them and are used to them. I believe the vuvuzelas’ impact on the goings on at the cup have been underrated by many pundits, and the South Africans will take advantage of that.
The French enter the tournament with tons of controversy swirling around them ranging from the players’ and country’s dislike for coach Raymond Domenech, the apparent arguments amongst players in the locker room, the coach not selecting certain players (Patrick Viera, Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema come to mind), the Thierry Henry handball that led to the deciding goal that gave France their berth to the tournament at Ireland's expense and that little issue involving some of the players and underage prostitutes that happened in Paris. Despite all this, on paper this team should be contending for the title, featuring world class players like Thierry Henry, Franck Ribery, Florent Malouda, Yoann Gourcuff, Patrice Evra, Nicholas Anelka, William Gallas and Hugo Lloris. Unfortunately for France though, the tournament is not played on paper. This dislike amongst the players for Domenech can, and will affect how the team performs on the field. Supporters of France will disagree, citing the 2006 World Cup when Domenech fielded a team that didn’t believe in his tactics that eventually lost in the finals to Italy. The big difference between that squad and this one though is the lack of leadership amongst the players. The 2006 edition had two players in Patrick Viera and Zinedine Zidane who provided leadership and charisma that the players rallied around. Current captain Henry does not appear to be that player, the one who can motivate his teammates to perform for their country to the best of their ability and not care about Domenech. This lack of leadership results in inconsistent play from a truly talented squad, making them anything but a safe bet to advance from this tricky group.
Uruguay rounds out this group. They are expected to advance along with France because of their talent up top, with strikers Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez expected to net multiple goals in South Africa en route to a successful campaign for the Uruguayans. I don’t doubt the talent of Uruguay, just the spottiness of their qualifying campaign. There is a lot expected of a team who had to go through a playoff with Costa Rica to make the field, not doing well enough to earn an automatic bid like Chile and Paraguay, despite those two teams having less fire power. I do not know a whole lot about the Uruguayans, but a loss to last place Peru, and only managing two draws from lowly Venezuela show me a team that can be extremely inconsistent no matter how talented they are. They were only able to take 24 points from an 18 game world cup qualifying campaign, anything but impressive for a team who is favored by many to be the dark horse team to make a run in the knockout stages.
Conclusion
My writing is pretty biased, I bet you can tell where I stand on this group: I see Mexico winning it, with South Africa nipping the second place on the last day by tying France. The French have proven they can underachieve when expectations are high (ex: 2002 World Cup where they didn’t score a goal as defending champs), and I think this team is set up to do so. With Uruguay, I think they are simply overrated as a team and I don’t see them getting a single point in the group stage. I really like Mexico though, and think they will do enough to win the group. I see them drawing with South Africa on the first day, but barely beating the French and Uruguayans to sneak into the Round of 16 like they always seem to do. Here is the table, schedule and how I see the group playing out:
Game 1: South Africa 1 vs. 1 Mexico
Game 2: Uruguay 0 vs. 2 France
Game 3: South Africa 2 vs. 1 Uruguay
Game 4: France 0 vs. 1 Mexico
Game 5: Mexico 3 vs. 2 Uruguay
Game 6: France 2 vs. 2 South Africa
Final Standings:
Mexico 7 pts
South Africa 5 pts
France 4 pts
Uruguay 0 pts
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