Thoughts on Upsets Galore and African Disappointment

Today was a day mostly spent shopping for me, so I do not have any major experiences to talk about. I did stand in line with my Dad to try to get tickets to the North Korea-Portugal match, but unfortunately we were unable to. What made the day a slightly sad day was that North Korea got absolutely obliterated by Portugal. So much for the whole Portugal playing down to their opponent theory I had, although the Koreans did play very well in the first half before tiring out.

This result was bad for two reasons. The first is that it eliminated the North Koreans from advancing. Anyone who has read this blog (the proud and few) know that I have a small crush on the team from this mysterious, militant communist nation, and their involvement has been one of my major headlines of this tournament. Just sad to know we only have one more game, hope they get a point. This comes to my second reason for disliking the Portuguese win today: it effectively has eliminated the Ivory Coast (North Korea’s next opponent) from advancing, making it look like Africa will not advance a single team this year. This is truly depressing; the South African people have been fantastic hosts, and while they appear to support every team here (except France, nobody likes them), they really want the African teams to do well. This is supposed to be Africa’s tournament: if no African teams even manage to make the Round of 16 then this tournament will lose a lot of its flavor. Ghana is in the best position to advance, but they face Germany, who will most likely need a win to advance: you would be foolish to bet against the Germans in this situation. The team with the best chance in my eyes is actually South Africa. The French are imploding (hilariously I might add. I wonder if they now wish the Thierry Henry handball did not happen so they wouldn’t have to go through this embarrassment), meaning they’re ripe to be slaughtered. South Africa will be motivated; I suspect they will win by multiple goals. What they need is Uruguay to beat Mexico by multiple goals too, and they will have a chance. I’m not counting the hosts out yet, I know the odds are against them, but crazier things have happened in this sport (USA advancing at last year’s Confederations Cup). That said, I would be foolish to anticipate this actually happening: Africa will be lucky to get one team this year in the knockout rounds.

It is odd how poorly Africa has done this year, since this year’s tournament has really been that of upsets. Actually it’s hard to call these results upsets because this field is so even, so I suppose a better description would be traditional powers losing to normally lesser teams. It’s hard to pick a favorite as there are so many to choose from, but here are the choices: New Zealand (tying both Slovakia and Italy), Japan (beating Cameroon), Switzerland (beating Spain), Serbia (beating Germany), Algeria (tying England), Mexico (beating France), Paraguay (tying Italy) and Uruguay (tying France) all fit this description. I’d have to pick the New Zealanders as my favorite, especially the tie with Italy, since the Italians were beyond lucky to get out of there with a point. I’m aware they hit the post a few times, but they also blatantly had the referee giving them every decision, and assuming that every time one of their players was on the ground it was the result of a New Zealander fouling them. Truly pathetic Italy, congratulations on needing to dive to get results against New Zealand who is made up of pretty much semi-pro players. I really dislike this edition of the Italians: uncreative, old, cocky and as I’ve alluded to, diving more than trying to play productive soccer.

The Swiss have also been fantastic this year, despite losing to a very good Chile side today. Did you know that the Swiss have only allowed 1 goal in their past 6 World Cup matches? Crazy statistic, this team is truly underrated. Their emergence as a good team could also be bad for Spain (currently up 1-0 on Honduras), who may not advance. The Spanish still have to play Chile, who are sky high in terms of confidence right now and will be tough to beat. That will be a Spanish victory, but it will be close, and goal difference will come into play.. How disappointing would it be if the Spanish do not advance? The tournament favorites not making it out of their group? That would not be good for the tournament either, especially with how so many good teams are on down years.

Speaking of how poor traditional powers have been this year, I realized a fun fact today: the four semifinalists from the 2006 World Cup (Italy, France, Germany and Portugal) have as many wins at this World Cup as the four Asian representatives (South Korea, Japan, North Korea and Australia): 2. Not only that, the two teams who have those wins (Germany and Portugal) both lost in the semi finals, meaning neither of the finalists from the last tournament have a win yet. They currently stand at a collective record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with their opponents being New Zealand, Paraguay, Uruguay and Mexico. The last time one of these teams made at least the quarterfinals of a World Cup tournament was 1986, when Mexico made it to the final 8 as hosts (New Zealand and Paraguay have never made it that far, and Uruguay hasn’t since 1970). This fact shows just how unconventional this tournament is shaking out to be, and how weak the normally strong teams are. Because of this, I believe it raises the chances of the World crowning brand new champions this year. My pick? The Dutch, who are yet to slip up in South Africa, while talented teams around them, are doing it daily. These types of tournaments are really the best kind. Ones where traditional powers dominate, like 2006, are fun but they aren’t nearly as enthralling: watching nations’ teams break new ground is always more fun then watching teams search for more tournament victories. And I believe it is this type of fun that we, as a collective audience, have to look forward to.