Group D is, top to bottom, the hardest group in South Africa. It features four teams who could easily go on runs in the knockout round of the tournament if they were to get hot. I am aware that Group G, which features Brazil, Portugal and the Ivory Coast is considered to be the famed “Group of Death”, but I would rather my team be in a group where there is a guaranteed three points (lowly North Korea also dwells in G), than one where every game will be tough, every point will have to be earned. The teams in the group are Germany, Australia, Serbia and Ghana.
The seeded team in the group is Germany, a regular favorite to win the cup. A mixture of injuries and necessity to use extremely young players though, has pushed the Germans down the list of teams most likely to lift the cup on July 11th. The biggest blow to the German cause is the injury to captain Michael Ballack, who got hurt in the FA Cup final for Chelsea against Portsmouth by Kevin-Prince Boateng, a player of German descent who plays for Ghana. The apparent feud between Boateng and Ballack has been all over the headlines recently because of the Germany vs. Ghana connection, but who did the injuring to Michael Ballack isn’t really important. What is important is that Germany lost their stable force in the center of the pitch, a player who easily had the most experience on the team at the International level. He has been Germany’s go-to-guy since the 2002 World Cup, and he will be sorely missed. The captain’s armband will now be worn by fullback Philipp Lahm, arguably Germany’s best player even when Ballack could play. Lahm is a great player and he appears to be captain material, but he is only 26 years old, a little too young to be captain of your country. He is a player who already had lots of pressure heading into this tournament, and now more has been heaped on him because of this captaincy. Lahm appears eager to take the armband, but how effective he is remains to be seen. It doesn’t help his cause that much of the defense for Germany is an enigma. The only certainty is that Per Mertesacker will start at center back, after that it is unknown. Lahm is world class on both the left and right wing of defense, and if I had to bet, he will be on the left wing, with Jerome Boateng (yes, brother of Kevin-Prince), on the right. The center of defense alongside Mertesacker is still a problem though. Heiko Westermann could’ve easily been the starter had he not been injured, meaning the inexperienced duo of Serdar Tasci and Holger Badstuber could end up starting in South Africa. The goalie situation is also not great, with number one keeper Manuel Neuer recently getting injured, meaning backups Jorg Butt or Tim Wiese could start in South Africa. The center of the midfield is also a potential problem, as Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira are the only defensive central midfielders Germany has. If either of the two get injured or suspended, then the Germans could be in trouble in terms of protecting the back four. The left midfield position will be taken by Lukas Podolski, the right will be either Thomas Muller or Toni Kroos, with Mesut Ozil being the creative player right behind the striker. Who will be the striker is a question. Based upon experience it will be Miroslav Klose, but Klose has had a horrendous year at Bayern Munich and shouldn’t be starting. Stuttgart’s Cacau should be the starter, coming off a good club year, but it could easily go to the experienced veteran Klose. In the end, this is not a physically imposing or frightening Germany squad, two aspects that go hand in hand with the German national team. Another character trait though is that of winning, even when they don’t deserve to, making them a very tough team to eliminate.
Australia is a very interesting team heading to South Africa. The Australians had a great campaign in 2006 which ended with a controversial loss to eventual champions Italy, the deciding goal resulting from a Fabio Grosso dive in the box that turned into a converted penalty kick. That was in the round of 16, a pretty good result for a team that had not scored a goal at the finals before that one. The Australians bring back much of the same team that took the field in Germany, which is both a good and bad thing. The experience will help, but the players are all starting to get on in years; questions about speed and durability come up when discussing the Australians. In between the pipes though, they have a very good keeper in Fulham’s Mark Schwarzer, who is particularly good at saving penalty kicks. He will have to be a big player in order for Australia to emerge from this group. The backline is consistent and experienced, so they shouldn’t be a problem. The midfield is also very good, with players like Tim Cahill, Harry Kewell, Mark Bresciano, and Brett Emerton providing the creative flair going forward that many teams would envy. The biggest problem for the Aussies up front though is the forward position. At the last World Cup they had experienced veterans Paul Viduka and John Aloisi up front, but now both have moved on. The current striker is probably the lanky Joshua Kennedy, but his presence will not strike fear into opponents. If the Australians can discover a goal scoring threat from the forward position, they will be very dangerous heading into the tournament.
Serbia is possibly the most underrated team in the field heading into South Africa. They are extremely balanced in every department of the game. Up top, they have the power of Nikola Zigic paired with the opportunistic Marko Pantelic. In the midfield, they have youngster Milos Krasic on the right who is primed for a breakout tournament after a great year with CSKA Moscow. In the middle they have the do-it-all captain Dejan Stankovic paired with the very effective, defensive Nenad Milijas. At the back, they have a world class Manchester United center back in Nemanja Vidic, as well as the physical presence of Branislav Ivanovic on the right side of defense. Ivanovic crosses as well as anyone in the game from the right flank, and Vidic will be set to shut down opponents’ best strikers. The goalkeeper is a little shaky, as Vladimir Stojkovic has been injury prone the past three year resulting in few games played. He is currently healthy though, so Stojkovic will be Serbia’s number one going into the tournament. This is also a battle tested side, winning a group featuring France, Austria and Romania, all participants in Euro 2008. Their coach Raddy Antic has also got the full support of his players, a key difference between the side that failed miserably at the last World Cup. In Germany, then coach Ilija Petkovic created controversy when he attempted to call up his son, who wasn’t talented enough to be in the squad. He also randomly changed the tactics he had installed in his group during qualifying. This time the Serbs have a coach they believe in, and one who has his sights set on a good campaign.
Ghana is the last team in group D, and is just as dangerous an outfit as any in the group. Like Australia, the Ghanaians exceeded all expectation by advancing out of a tough group featuring Italy, the Czech Republic and the USA. What made their advancing even more impressive was that they were the only African team to progress out of the group stage, a tremendous honor and achievement. They fell in the round of 16 to Brazil, losing 3-0, despite controlling much of the game and honestly, creating better chances than the Brazilians. Finishing those chances ended up being the Achilles heel though for Ghana, and it could be this time as well. They have no fear-instilling forwards, and opponents like Serbia should be able to stop them with ease. Asamoah Gyan will probably get the start up front, but the leggy striker will have trouble ridding himself of the presence of defenders like Per Mertesacker and Nemanja Vidic. The quality of the midfield has also taken a massive blow by the injury of Michael Essien, who will not be healthy in time to participate in the finals. It is a true shame, as Essien is one of the most dynamic midfielders in the world and will be missed in South Africa. The show must go on though for Ghana, and players like Sulley Muntari, Stephen Appiah and Kwadwo Asamoah (only 21 years old) will have to pick up the slack without the presence of Essien. The backline is good though, and has depth, with promising right back Sammy Inkoom probably starting over the experienced Fulham back John Patnsil and three reliable center backs in John Mensah, Isaac Vorsah and Lee Addy. The probable starting duo in the center is Mensah and Vorsah because Addy is also effective at the left fullback position and will be starting there. Ghana also has a decent keeper in the form of the athletic Laryea Kingston, who had a very good World Cup in 2006 and has improved since. Ghana’s hopes have been dashed because of the injury to their world class midfielder Michael Essien, but don’t count them out yet as there is still plenty of talent in this team.
Conclusion:
This group is absolutely stacked, top to bottom, but my picks to advance are Germany and Serbia. Despite losing Michael Ballack, I still see the Germans winning all three games in South Africa and advancing. They are, after all, German. The Serbs also advance for me, beating Ghana and Australia with ease, and losing a tough one to Germany. Despite the loss, the Serbs advance as the second team out of the group. The problem with Australia and Ghana is they simply don’t have enough fire power to keep up with the two European teams. Losing Michael Essien is huge for Ghana, and while they do have other quality players, he was the motor that made that team run. Australia are not imposing enough up front, as Joshua Kennedy will disappoint in South Africa by not scoring a single goal. I do not see either team going without a point though. The meeting between these two teams will be the best game of the group, and I see it playing out as a 2-2 draw. Here is the table, schedule and how I see the group playing out:
Game 1: Germany 1 vs. 0 Australia
Game 2: Serbia 3 vs. 1 Ghana
Game 3: Germany 2 vs. 1 Serbia
Game 4: Ghana 2 vs. 2 Australia
Game 5: Ghana 0 vs. 2 Germany
Game 6: Australia 0 vs. 2 Serbia
Standings:
Germany 9 pts
Serbia 6 pts
Australia 1 pt
Ghana 1 pt
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