Group F receives the award for weakest group in South Africa. It features four teams who I do not see making the quarterfinals barring a total miracle. This is shocking considering the defending champions Italy reside in the group. I really do not favor the Italians though and would not be shocked if they do not win the group. Paraguay and Slovakia are tricky teams, but I do not see anything other than round of 16 for either of them, and New Zealand will be lucky to get a single point from the group. None of these teams stick out to me, hence why this will probably be a shorter post than usual.
Italy was considered too old of a team in 2006 when they went on a fantastic run to win the World Cup and that was four years ago. There are far too many players who are expected to play at this year’s tournament who have gotten on in age. I don’t think that all of these players should be expected to get significant playing time, but the lack of youth infusion in this squad is a little startling: Fabio Cannavaro (the captain, 37), Gianluigi Buffon (32), Gianluca Zambrotta (33), Andrea Pirlo (31), Antonio di Natale (32), Gennaro Gattuso (32), Vincenzo Iaquinta (30), Morgan De Sanctis (33) and Mauro Cameronesi (33). Those are all the players the Italians are taking over the age of 30 (nine in total), and other than Buffon who I still think is one of the top three goalkeepers in the world, all those players are past their prime. Italy has one of the top three domestic leagues in the world, are you telling me they have not produced better players than the ones who are on that list? I think they do have better players, but coach Marcello Lippi is opting to take the players who have done it already for him (Lippi coached them to the title in 2006). There are roles for players who are past their prime and have experience, but there is no need to take eight players, roughly 35% of his squad, who are past their prime. How players like Gattuso and Cameronesi make it when Sebastian Giovinco, whose speed is unrivaled on this squad, not make it? I recognize that Giovinco has had almost no playing time this year, but Gattuso and Cameronesi are not good players anymore. I’m happy to see players like Giampaolo Pazzini, Giorgio Chiellini, Domenico Criscito and Danielle de Rossi make the team, two players who I think can have productive tournaments, but when the anchor of your defense is a 37 year old who is no longer wanted by his boyhood club, you’ve got problems. The stereotypical stingy defense will be in full effect, but there is a huge chink in the armor in Cannavaro. Also, Andrea Pirlo was one of the best players of the past decade, but he really did not impress me this past season with AC Milan; I do not see a good cup from him, which is bad for Italy considering they expect him to provide much of the creativity going forward. Italy are the weakest seeded team in the field besides hosts South Africa, and will have their work cut out for them to win this group like they are supposed to.
Paraguay is a very difficult side, and one that has to be respected by anyone who comes across them. It is not easy to qualify for four straight World Cups in South America, especially when you don’t really have any star power, but that is what Paraguay has done. They made the round of 16 in 1998 and 2002 before being eliminated in the group stage in 2006. There is a lot of expectation and motivation for the players this year. Key striker Salvador Cabanas was shot in the head in a Mexican during January, and while he survived it, he will be unable to be present in South Africa. This is added motivation for a team that was already determined to make the round of 16 this year. They have a good goalkeeper in Justo Villar, the team captain, who should be a calming presence at the back, and dynamic forwards on good form in Lucas Barrios, Nelson Haedo Valdez and Oscar Cardozo. The only question mark up front in Roque Santa Cruz, who had a terrible season at Manchester City, where he barely played, but his presence may not be necessary on the pitch. Barrios, Valdez and Cardozo are all fantastic options, and while Santa Cruz has been one of the biggest names in recent Paraguayan soccer, it may not be a must that he is on the field. Players like Edgar Barreto and Nestor Ortigoza should do a good job of marshalling the midfield, while Paulo Da Silva and Julio Caceres should be solid at the center of defense. All in all, if Paraguay play the way they can, it will be tough not seeing them advance from this group.
New Zealand simply has no hope of advancing. It is a total victory that they have gotten here, and I’m not trying to take anything away from their accomplishments, but the stiffest competition they faced was Bahrain, who they barely beat at home 1-0, to secure their spot. Not only that, they didn’t fare well at last year’s Confederations Cup, where they left with one point and no goals scored. Players like Shane Smeltz, Aaron Clapham and Ryan Nelson will be relied on, but there is not much hope for them. For me, New Zealand is the weakest team in the World Cup field, and will be lucky to score a goal.
Slovakia rounds out this group. They are very much an unknown except for a few. The crown jewel of this team is clearly Marek Hamsik, an attacking midfielder who has been impressive with Napoli in Italy the past few years. He will be vital to Slovakia doing well, and he is expected to have a fantastic tournament. It is also an advantage to have Italy in the group, a team whose players he plays week in and week out in Serie A. Goalkeeper Jan Mucha appears to be the goalie of the future for the Slovaks after securing a big money transfer to Everton this past year. Martin Skrtel is a big name defender who plays consistently for Liverpool in the center of defense. He will be expected to both marshal the defense and shut down the opposition’s best forwards, a lot to ask of one individual but Skrtel is very good and should be up to the task. Stanislav Sestak scored the most goals in qualification for Slovakia, who topped a group with Slovenia and the Czech Republic, and will be expected to put the ball in the back of the net in South Africa. An interesting storyline when the Slovaks play will be if they can do better than bitter rivals Czech Republic, who made the tournament last time but failed to progress past the group stage. Doing so would be considered a huge success in Slovakia, and appears to be the only way this campaign will be considered one, despite making the tournament at the Czech’s expense. They will compete with Italy and Paraguay for the second spot, hoping to not be the odd man out and join New Zealand in heading home early.
Conclusion:
I predict an upset in a historical sense, and see Paraguay winning the group, with Italy finishing second. The first match of the group will see Paraguay shock the world and beat the defending champions 1-0, with the Italians looking lost and lacking creativity up top. Paraguay will tie a tough Slovakia team, who will deserve to win the match but be unlucky, before dominating New Zealand to secure top spot. Heading into the last day, all Slovakia will need to do to advance will be draw with Italy but I do not think they will be able to do that, losing 2-0. This may be a weak Italy team, but the match against Slovakia will be one where all that experience they have will be useful and they will find a way to win. New Zealand will leave with one goal scored, coming against an already qualified Paraguay on the final day of the competition. Here is the table, schedule and how I see the group playing out:
Game 1: Italy 0 vs. 1 Paraguay
Game 2: New Zealand 0 vs. 3 Slovakia
Game 3: Slovakia 1 vs. 1 Paraguay
Game 4: Italy 2 vs. 0 New Zealand
Game 5: Slovakia 0 vs. 1 Italy
Game 6: Paraguay 4 vs. 1 New Zealand
Final Standings:
Paraguay 7pts
Italy 6 pts
Slovakia 4 pts
New Zealand 0 pts
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